Hong Kong Dark Report: October 2026
The Hong Kong Dark Report is a tool to help the buy side understand and navigate the Hong Kong market structure on a per stock basis. The report highlights dark market data points including dark % of turnover and trends, dark trade sizes, block turnover and statistical highlights, amongst others.
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Hong Kong average daily notional traded (HSI proxy) fell -29% versus its trailing three-month average in October. This contraction in activity accompanied a meaningful deterioration in market conditions: the HSI fell 5.2% on the month, while the broader HSCI declined 7.0%, extending September's losses. Meanwhile, realized volatility on the HSI increased sharply, ending the month at 18.2%, nearly 50% higher than September levels.
Mainland Chinese investors sold a net HK$24 billion of Hong Kong shares via Stock Connect in October — the largest monthly outflow since 2021 — including 13 consecutive trading days of net sales into month-end.
October was marked by a pronounced shift toward defensive sectors. Energy, Consumer Staples, and Utilities outperformed, while Technology, Healthcare and Industries posted double-digit declines. The wide 1,860 bps spread between the best- and worst-performing sectors underscores elevated macro uncertainty and increased stock-selection risk.
HSCI dark activity continued to gain share, with its participation in total market turnover rising +12% to 1.7%. The increase was primarily attributable to a further contraction in lit-market volume and rising volatility.
The top four names all experienced elevated dark activity alongside notable company-specific news or developments:
Prada 1913.HK: 39.3% in dark, nearly 8x September level. Following Goldman Sachs' reinstatement of coverage with a Buy rating and HK$52 price target, Prada delivered a 6.2% monthly return, outperforming the declining HSCI by approximately 1,300 bps. The company also reported strong 9M net sales growth of 15% YoY , with 20 October marking its highest trading volume in five months.
FWD Group 1828.HK: 28.6% in dark, more than double September's level. FWD announced the acquisition of a 25% stake in Bolttech Insurance for approximately HKD162 million, a transaction aimed at strengthening its strategic partnership with Bolttech and increasing its presence in the Hong Kong insurance market.
Guotai Junan 1788.HK: 16.5% in dark, the highest level on record. Liquidnet participated 13% of market dark volume. Guotai Haitong Financial Holdings is progressing with its proposed privatization of Guotai Junan International in a HK$28.59 billion transaction. On 19 October, the company announced that it had completed the required approvals, reviews, and filings with Shanghai SASAC, marking a key procedural milestone.
Swire Properties 1972.HK: 13.3% in dark, nearly 3x the prior month's level. Liquidnet participated 29% of market dark volume. Dark activity was likely supported by Morgan Stanley's decision on 22 October to add the stock to its China/Hong Kong focus list. Trading activity subsequently accelerated, with 26 October recording 5.11 million shares traded, the highest daily volume in the past two months. The stock also continued to rally, reaching its highest level since June.
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